Question 21N.2.HL.TZ0.1a.ii

The strong Thai baht

1. Thailand’s currency, the Thai baht, ended 2019 at its highest value in more than six years. With a 7.8 % gain against the United States dollar (US$), it was the currency that appreciated the most among major Asian currencies.
   
   
2. The Thai baht’s appreciation was caused by several factors. Many foreign investors are attracted by Thailand’s economic stability, high levels of foreign reserves, low inflation rate and low unemployment (Table 1). However, the inflation rate is below the central bank’s target.
   
   
3. Initially, the central bank of Thailand (BoT) was not too concerned, as the strong Thai baht was helping Thai importers and those who had foreign debts. Additionally, Thai producers could afford to import new technology and capital equipment. An appreciating currency could also help improve the country’s terms of trade.
   
   
4. However, a strong currency can have severe consequences on an export-oriented country like Thailand. Exports account for 65 % of gross domestic product (GDP), and in 2019 exports declined by 7 %. Additionally, the tourism industry, which makes up approximately 20 % of GDP and accounts for 16 % of employment, started to express concern. Economic growth in 2019 was 3 %, down from 4.1 % in 2018.
   
   
5. Therefore, towards the end of 2019, the BoT implemented measures to prevent further appreciation of the Thai baht. The BoT reduced controls on capital outflows to make it easier for Thai citizens to move money abroad. Additionally, restrictions were placed on the amount of money foreigners could hold in Thai bank accounts.
   
   
6. The BoT is considering further measures including the use of foreign reserves, a decrease in the interest rate, and imposing controls on capital inflows, to prevent speculative inflows. However, these controls may impact the country’s credibility and financial markets. Expansionary monetary policy may also increase household debt which, at 78.6 % of GDP, is among the highest in Asia.
   
   
7. The BoT is concerned about using foreign reserves, as this may result in Thailand being labelled a currency manipulator* by the US. Currently, Thailand’s overall large current account surplus is the only requirement it meets to be labelled a currency manipulator. However, Thailand’s bilateral trade surplus with the US is currently US$19 billion, which means it is close to meeting a second requirement. Thailand wants to avoid being labelled a currency manipulator as the US may use trade protection in retaliation.

* currency manipulator: the US will label a country as a currency manipulator if the following three requirements are met (a country will be placed on a watchlist if they meet two of the requirements):
1. The country is using its foreign reserves to change the value of its currency to gain an advantage
2. The country has a bilateral trade surplus with the US of over US$20 billion
3. The country has a current account surplus of more than 2 % of its GDP.

Table 1: Thailand macroeconomic indicators 2019

[Source: Bloomberg News, 2020. Thailand moves closer to US currency watchlist [online]. Available at:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1831214/thailand-moves-closer-to-us-currency-watchlist
[Accessed 27 October 2020]. Used with permission of Bloomberg L.P. Copyright © 2022.
All rights reserved. Source adapted.

Bloomberg, 2019. The Thai Baht reached a new 6-year high. Here’s why it’s surging [online]. Available at:
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/10/25/the-thai-baht-reached-a-new-6-year-high-hereswhy-
its-surging [Accessed 27 October 2020]. Used with permission of Bloomberg L.P. Copyright © 2022.
All rights reserved. Source adapted.

Cumperayot, P., 2019. What Does a Rising Baht Mean for Thailand’s Economy? [online]. Available at:
https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/what-does-a-rising-baht-mean-for-thailands-economy/
[Accessed 27 October 2020]. Source adapted.]