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Question 21N.2.HL.TZ0.b

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Date November 2021 Marks available [Maximum mark: 4] Reference code 21N.2.HL.TZ0.b
Level HL Paper 2 Time zone TZ0
Command term Explain Question number b Adapted from N/A
b.
[Maximum mark: 4]
21N.2.HL.TZ0.b

New policies for Brazil

  1. From 2010 to 2014, Brazil experienced an economic boom with annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 8 %. During this time, the government spent heavily on social programmes (including cash transfers and pensions) that helped millions to get out of the poverty cycle. The poverty rate decreased from 22 % to 9 % and the Gini coefficient dropped from 0.581 to 0.515. However, the spending on social programmes resulted in fiscal deficits and a large public debt, which is currently 80 % of GDP.

  2. In 2015, Brazil entered a recession that lasted until 2017. During the recession GDP declined by an average of 3 % per year. By 2017, the number of Brazilians living in absolute poverty climbed by 13 %, inequality worsened, and unemployment was 12 %. From late 2017 to 2019, Brazil struggled to recover, with only approximately 1 % annual economic growth.

  3. Some economists blamed the slow recovery on the lack of investment in education and technology during the economic boom. According to those economists, investment in human and physical capital was necessary to improve productivity and decrease the reliance on the production of primary commodities. Historically, spending on education has not been effective in reaching the very poor.

  4. In 2018, a newly elected government, aiming to stimulate economic growth, introduced market-oriented policies. Since Brazil has a large economy, the new government believed that Brazil should take advantage of world trade and foreign investment to boost economic growth and achieve economic development.

  5. The new government aimed to increase the number of multinational corporations (MNCs) investing in Brazil through deregulation and trade liberalization. Furthermore, in 2020 several state-owned enterprises were privatized.

  6. Additionally, new labour market and tax reforms were introduced to create jobs, increase labour force participation and make it easier for firms to hire and fire workers. The reforms included increasing the retirement age and reducing transfer payments. However, trade unions claim that the reforms are unfair and will lead to the exploitation of workers.

  7. There is concern that deregulation, privatization and market liberalization will put pressure on Brazil’s environment, threaten sustainable development, and benefit only urban areas. In 2017, the government introduced “green GDP” as an official measure and committed to environmental protection goals. This is necessary because, for example, over 40 % of the population live in areas without access to a sewage system and manufacturing companies are dumping untreated wastewater in rivers, contributing to water pollution.

Using a business cycle diagram from 2010 to 2019, explain how cyclical unemployment may have changed during the economic boom (paragraph [1]) and the recession (paragraph [2]) in Brazil.

[4]

Markscheme

Candidates who incorrectly label diagrams can be awarded a maximum of [3].

For a business cycle diagram, the vertical axis should be (Real) GDP, (Real) GDP growth/%, level of economic activity, (Real) output. The horizontal axis should be time and show dates from 2010–19. A title is not necessary.

If a student labels growth and shows a recession as positive the student can not be awarded full marks.

Examiners report

Most candidates were able to construct an accurate business cycle diagram but a significant minority failed to use the data as required in the question, not incorporating the timeline. The term cyclical unemployment was generally understood but again in a significant minority of cases, the term was inaccurately defined. Some students provided a purely generic answer, which was totally unrelated to the text provided.