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Question 23M.2.SL.TZ0.2

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Date May 2023 Marks available [Maximum mark: 40] Reference code 23M.2.SL.TZ0.2
Level SL Paper 2 Time zone TZ0
Command term Calculate, Define, Discuss, Explain, Illustrate Question number 2 Adapted from N/A
2.
[Maximum mark: 40]
23M.2.SL.TZ0.2

Text D — Overview of Cameroon

  1. Cameroon is a country in Central Africa with a population of 25 million. It is rich in natural resources, including oil and mineral ores, and produces a wide range of agricultural products, such as cotton and cocoa. Its economic growth is usually driven by the export of oil. The gross domestic product (GDP) of Cameroon grew by an average of 5.6 % per year between 2013 and 2014 when oil prices were high.

  2. Economic growth slowed and the budget deficit increased sharply between 2014 and 2016, when oil prices fell by 45 %. Oil production is a major part of the formal economy and is an important source of tax revenue for the government of Cameroon. Up to 90 % of the workers in other sectors are employed in the informal economy and hence contribute significantly less to tax revenue. Increased military spending in response to recent conflicts in the western regions of Cameroon further widened the budget deficit.

  3. Since the collapse of oil prices, economic growth has been supported by expansionary fiscal policy, which has become increasingly difficult to sustain. The budget deficit has increased to around 5 % of GDP and caused government (national) debt to rise to 30 % of GDP.

  4. Although there has been some reduction in absolute poverty in Cameroon, the number of people living in relative poverty increased by 12 % to 8.1 million between 2007 and 2014. The funds allocated for poverty reduction often go to subsidies for electricity, food and fuel. This reduces available funding for education and healthcare, which is insufficient in rural areas where poverty is most extreme.

  5. With an abundance of natural resources, Cameroon has the potential to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). However, weak governance and the poor business environment have deterred foreign investors. Local entrepreneurs are also discouraged by the long wait times for obtaining licenses to operate and the difficulties in securing business loans.

  6. Cameroon maintains a fixed exchange rate to the euro, at 1 franc = 0.0015 euro. Because of the persistent trade deficit, the franc (Cameroon’s currency) is overvalued at this level. Interest rates are kept high to prevent capital flight, which could increase the currency’s overvaluation.

Text E — The Growth and Employment Strategy

  1. The Growth and Employment Strategy is a set of policies adopted by the government of Cameroon to encourage diversification and promote efficiency in production. The policies have three broad objectives:

    • Create jobs and reduce the size of the informal economy through investment inhuman capital.
    • Increase productivity in agriculture, mining, and selected industries with potential for growth(timber, tourism, and information and communication technologies).
    • Encourage private investment and trade through the provision of infrastructure (including roads, ports and clean water supply).
  2. Productivity is low, especially in the primary sector. Cameroon has one million small farms engaged in traditional agriculture, but has a limited number of workers trained in good farming practices and management skills. Unskilled workers often work in the informal economy.

  3. Access to imported fertilizer and lower transportation costs could reduce costs of production significantly. Farms also need to increase productivity to reduce labour costs. The monthly agricultural wage averages 20 000 francs but the government has recently increased the minimum wage to 36 270 francs. This could lead to an improvement in the economic well-being of workers in the formal economy but could increase unemployment and force some workers to enter the informal economy.

  4. The government remains committed to keeping food prices low in the short term through subsidies. Due to improved farming methods, farmers produced better quality cocoa beans
    in 2019, allowing them to charge higher prices on the international market. Over time, the increase in productivity should lead to higher incomes, lower prices and higher-quality products.

Text F — Free trade agreements with the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK)

Cameroon has signed free trade agreements with the EU and the UK, which allow tariff-free access to the EU and the UK markets for products such as bananas, aluminium and processed cocoa products. Tariffs on imports into Cameroon of machinery and equipment, vehicles and fertilizers were also removed. However, tariffs on textiles and strategic agricultural products such as meat products, milk and selected vegetables were maintained.

Table 3: Selected data for Cameroon

 

Table 4: Cameroon’s main export markets (2019)

[Source: Text D: The World Bank, 2022. The World Bank in Cameroon [online] Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/
cameroon/overview [Accessed 15 March 2022] Source adapted.

The World Bank, 2022. Cameroon – Fostering skills for inclusive workforce development, competitiveness, and
growth : a framework for action (French) [online] Available at: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/
documents-reports/documentdetail/862521468001177532/cameroon-fostering-skills-for-inclusive-workforce-development-competitiveness-and-growth-a-framework-for-action [Accessed 15 March 2022] Source adapted.
CC BY 3.0 IGO.

Sellers, K., The Borgen Project, 2018. Top 10 Facts About Poverty in Cameroon [online] Available at:
https://borgenproject.org/ facts-about-poverty-in-cameroon/ [Accessed 15 March 2022] Source adapted.

Text E: The World Bank, 2022. Cameroon – Fostering skills for inclusive workforce development, competitiveness, and
growth: a framework for action (French) [online] Available at: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/
documents-reports/documentdetail/862521468001177532/cameroon-fostering-skills-for-inclusive-workforce-development-competitiveness-and-growth-a-framework-for-action [Accessed 15 March 2022] Source adapted. CC BY 3.0 IGO.

Text F: Bama, C. E., 2021. Cameroon signs an Interim Economic Partnership Agreement with the United Kingdom
[online] Available at: https://www.tralac.org/blog/article/15168-cameroon-signs-an-interim-economic-partnership-agreement-with-the-united-kingdom.html [Accessed 15 March 2022] Source adapted.

Table 3: The World Bank, 2022. [online] Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/ [Accessed 14 March 2022] Source adapted.]

(a.i)

Define the term relative poverty indicated in bold in the text (Text D, paragraph 4).

[2]

Markscheme

Examiners report

Most responses to (a)(i) were able to receive 1 mark for demonstrating an approximate understanding of relative poverty but few could provide a definition precise enough to be awarded full marks. A significant number of candidates exhibited confusion between the concepts of absolute poverty and relative poverty.

(a.ii)

Define the term infrastructure indicated in bold in the text (Text E, paragraph 1).

[2]

Markscheme

Examiners report

Defining infrastructure proved to be less challenging, with most candidates earning at least 1 mark and many achieving full marks. However, a common misunderstanding was that infrastructure refer exclusively to "public goods".

(b.i)

Using the information in Table 3, calculate the inflation rate in Cameroon in 2019.

[1]

Markscheme

Inflation in 2019: [(118.6 - 115.8)/115.8]×100% = 2.42%

An answer of 2.42% without workings is sufficient for [1]

Examiners report

Most students could calculate the inflation rate, although occasional careless mistakes were observed. These errors included using the wrong base year in the denominator or failing to subtract one when using the formula "new value divided by original value". Additional mistakes that resulted in mark deductions were the omission of the unit (% in this case) and rounding down to less than two decimal points, as explicitly instructed on the exam cover page. 

(b.ii)
Using the information in Table 3 and your answer to (b)(i), calculate the real interest rate in Cameroon in 2019.

[1]

Markscheme
real interest rate in 2018: 7.94 – 2.42 = 5.52%
 
OFR applies.
 
An answer of 5.52% without workings is sufficient for [1]
Examiners report

Fewer candidates were able to calculate the real interest rate, although some students who made errors in calculating the inflation rate in part (b)(i) demonstrated knowledge of the calculation of the real interest rate in part (b)(ii) and received the mark through the application of the Own Figure Rule (OFR) principle. 

(b.iii)
Using an appropriate diagram, illustrate the unemployment which may arise from the imposition of a minimum wage (Text E, paragraph 3).

[3]

Markscheme

The vertical axis may be labelled real wage, real wage rate, wage or price of labour and the horizontal axis labelled quantity of labour or number of workers or just labour. A title is not necessary.

Award [2] for a fully labelled labour diagram showing a wage above the market equilibrium. Award [1] for the illustration of the unemployment – which may be done by referring to ‘AB’, ‘Q1Q2’ or by annotating the unemployment (surplus) on the diagram. 

Examiners report

Surprisingly, the minimum wage diagram proved challenging for many candidates. While most students understood that unemployment would increase due to a minimum wage, they struggled to effectively illustrate this on a diagram. Common mistakes included mislabelling of axes and treating the diagram as a standard demand and supply diagram for goods rather than a factor market diagram. Many candidates also felt compelled to provide lengthy explanations for the diagram, leading to a waste of valuable time. It is important to note that part (b) questions are strictly quantitative and do not require explanatory narratives.

(c)

Using an AD/AS diagram, explain how expansionary fiscal policy has supported economic growth in Cameroon (Text D, paragraph 3).

[4]

Markscheme

Candidates who label diagrams incorrectly can be awarded a maximum of [3].

For AD/AS, the vertical axis may be Average (General) Price Level, or Price Level. The horizontal axis may be real output, real national output, real income, real national income, real GDP or real Y. Any abbreviation of the previous terms is acceptable. A title is not necessary.

Examiners report

Most candidates performed well on this question and received 2 marks for the diagram. Only a small number of responses incorrectly shifted the short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve, resulting in no mark awarded for the diagram. However, in the explanations, an essential step was often omitted: explaining that government expenditure (and/or consumption/investment in the case of expansionary policy explained through a decrease in taxes) is a component of aggregate demand.

(d)

Using an exchange rate diagram, explain how capital flight may increase the overvaluation of the franc (Text D, paragraph 6).

[4]

Markscheme

Candidates who label diagrams incorrectly can be awarded a maximum of [3].

For an exchange rate diagram, the vertical axis may be exchange rate, price/value of the (CFA) franc in euros, euros/(CFA) franc or euros per (CFA) franc. The horizontal axis should be quantity, or quantity of (CFA) francs. A title is not necessary.

Examiners report

This question highlighted a lack of understanding among most candidates regarding the concept of capital flight, which results in an increased supply of domestic currency (francs in this case). Several candidates mistakenly equated "overvaluation" with "revaluation" or "appreciation," leading them to draw diagrams showing the exchange rate rising. It was not uncommon to see diagrams depicting an increase in the demand for francs and a subsequent rise in the exchange rate. It is evident that candidates struggled trying to illustrate a fixed exchange rate system.

(e)

Using a demand and supply diagram, explain how government subsidies may help to keep food prices low (Text E, paragraph 4).

[4]

Markscheme

Candidates who label diagrams incorrectly can be awarded a maximum of [3].

The use of P and Q on the axes is sufficient for a demand and supply diagram. A title is not necessary.

Examiners report

Most students performed well on this question, successfully drawing a fully labelled diagram showing the increase in supply and decrease in price. If any marks were deducted, it was typically due to missing labels or a failure to mention the impact on the cost of production in the explanation.

(f)

Using an international trade diagram, explain the effect of removing tariffs on the imports of fertilizer into Cameroon (Text F).

[4]

Markscheme

Candidates who incorrectly label diagrams can be awarded a maximum of [3].

The use of P and Q on the axes is sufficient for an international trade diagram. World supply may also be labelled S(EU) or S(UK) or S(EU+UK) or just P(W) or (P(UK) or P(EU) or (P(EU+UK). The domestic demand and supply curves can just be labelled D and S. A title is not necessary.

Examiners report

The question did not present any significant difficulties for most candidates. Some students missed out on full marks in the explanation portion as they simply stated that imports increase without providing supporting analysis. For example, they failed to recognize that the decrease in price leads to a decline in domestic supply and/or an increase in domestic demand, resulting in a greater need to import fertilizer. It is worth noting that some students misinterpreted the question and spent a considerable amount of time describing the effects of tariff removal on government revenues, consumer and producer surpluses, and welfare losses. This is not uncommon for questions relating to trade protection diagrams. While there is no mark deduction for over-elaboration, candidates self-penalise by having less time to part (g), which carries more marks.

(g)

Using information from the texts/data and your knowledge of economics, discuss the need for a balance between market-oriented policies and government intervention to promote economic development in Cameroon.

[15]

Markscheme
 
Command term
“Discuss” requires candidates to offer a considered and balanced review that includes a range of arguments, factors, or hypotheses. Opinions or conclusions should be presented clearly and supported by appropriate evidence. 

Responses may include:

  • a definition of economic development
  • a definition of government intervention/interventionist policies
  • a definition of market-oriented policies
  • diagrams (e.g. AD/AS, poverty cycle).

Intervention which may lead to development

  • Military intervention to bring stability to regions experiencing conflicts (Text D, paragraph 2).
  • The high interest rates help maintain the fixed exchange rate which brings stability (Text D, paragraph 6).
  • The policies under the Growth and Employment Strategy would help increase human capital and increase productivity, which may help many break the poverty cycle and increase LRAS and export revenues (which could result in higher incomes) (Text E, paragraphs 1, 3 and 4).
  • Better infrastructure would bring in FDI/increased investment (Text E, paragraph 1).
  • The higher minimum wage helps increase workers’ well-being but comes with the possibility of unemployment and may make it difficult for the authorities to reduce the size of the informal sector (Text E, paragraph 3).
  • Subsidies help to keep electricity, food and fuel prices low and accessible (Text D, paragraph 4; Text E, paragraph 4).

Limitations of intervention

  • Fiscal deficits and government debt may increase (Text D, paragraphs 2 and 3).
  • Some forms of intervention are too short-term such as subsidies (Text D, paragraph 4) or may not be sustainable in the long-term (Text D, paragraph 2).
  • There is an opportunity cost to intervention (Text D, paragraph 4).
  • Subsidies for fuel can increase external costs (Text D, paragraph 4).
  • Intervention through higher interest rates to support the overvalued currency (Text D, paragraph 6) will have a contractionary impact on the economy and this could limit the impact of expansionary fiscal policy (Text D, paragraph 3).
  • High interest rates also mean that entrepreneurs have more difficulty in obtaining loans (Table 3).
  • The fixed (over-valued) exchange rate raises export prices, which hampers trade (but does contribute to lower prices of fertilizers etc.) (Text D, paragraph 6).
  • Military intervention may reduce freedoms and development (Text D, paragraph 2).

Market-oriented policies which may lead to development

  • Deregulation/decrease in bureaucracy may lead to an increase in investment (Text D, paragraph 5). This may help promote local entrepreneurship.
  • Membership in free trade groups allows for higher export revenue which would lead to economic growth. The EU and UK currently account for almost half of trade with Cameroon (Table 3).
  • The removal of tariffs on fertilizers (Text F) would help decrease farmers’ costs and lead to more competitive exports (Text E, paragraph 2). This could also help decrease the need for subsidies in the long-term (Text E, paragraph 3).
  • Removal of tariffs on capital goods (Text F) may lead to higher productivity and/or reduce costs for firms.

Limitations of market-oriented policies

  • Membership of free trade groups may worsen/not reduce Cameroon’s persistent trade deficit if imports increase more than exports (Text D, paragraph 6).
  • Without adequate provision of infrastructure and provision of education, the country will continue to lack diversification of economic activities. Economic growth may not be sustained due to the volatility of commodity prices (Text D, paragraph 2).
  • Some policies such as tax incentives and subsidies may not benefit those working in the informal sector. Such policies would thus have limited effectiveness in reducing poverty due to the size of the informal economy (Text D, paragraph 3) and level of poverty (Text D, paragraph 4).
  • Relative poverty may continue to increase due to disparities in benefits from export-led growth (Text D, paragraph 4).

Examiners should be aware that candidates may take a different approach which, if appropriate, should be rewarded.

Examiners report

Most candidates understood the concept of economic development and knew it was different from economic growth. Fewer could differentiate between market-oriented policies and other forms of government intervention, but the majority was able to identify some market-oriented policies and interventionist measures mentioned in the texts. Responses that achieved Level 4 (10–12 marks) and Level 5 (13–15 marks) were those that connected the effects of each policy to specific development outcomes, such as breaking the poverty cycle through increased productivity or reduce trade protection hindering diversification. Such connections need to be explained rather than merely stated (for example, explaining how increased foreign direct investment (FDI) could facilitate or impede development). It was not uncommon to read responses with potentially strong economic arguments, which were unfortunately underdeveloped. In such cases, a low score on the second descriptor often resulted in a lower overall score, as the theory was described rather than explained. The strongest answers made use of information from the texts and/or data to support their judgments on the effectiveness of the discussed policies in achieving economic development. Weaker responses failed to distinguish between different types of government intervention or policies and often solely focused on economic growth without establishing a connection between economic growth and economic development.

Syllabus sections