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Date May Specimen paper Marks available 1 Reference code SPM.1.AHL.TZ0.16
Level Additional Higher Level Paper Paper 1 Time zone Time zone 0
Command term State Question number 16 Adapted from N/A

Question

The number of fish that can be caught in one hour from a particular lake can be modelled by a Poisson distribution.

The owner of the lake, Emily, states in her advertising that the average number of fish caught in an hour is three.

Tom, a keen fisherman, is not convinced and thinks it is less than three. He decides to set up the following test. Tom will fish for one hour and if he catches fewer than two fish he will reject Emily’s claim.

State a suitable null and alternative hypotheses for Tom’s test.

[1]
a.

Find the probability of a Type I error.

[2]
b.

The average number of fish caught in an hour is actually 2.5.

Find the probability of a Type II error.

[3]
c.

Markscheme

H 0 : m = 3 ,   H 1 : m < 3        A1

Note: Accept equivalent statements in words.

[1 mark]

a.

(let X be the number of fish caught)

P ( X 1 | m = 3 ) = 0.199       M1A1

[2 marks]

b.

P ( X 2 | m = 2.5 ) ( = 1 P ( X 1 | m = 2.5 ) )      M1A1

Note: Award M1 for using m = 2.5 to evaluate a probability, award A1 for also having X ≥ 2 .

= 0.713       A1

[3 marks]

c.

Examiners report

[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

Syllabus sections

Topic 4—Statistics and probability » AHL 4.18—T and Z test, type I and II errors
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Topic 4—Statistics and probability

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