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DP IB Maths: AI HL

Revision Notes

Home / IB / Maths: AI HL / DP / Revision Notes / 4. Statistics & Probability / 4.10 Poisson Distribution / 4.10.1 Poisson Distribution


4.10.1 Poisson Distribution


Properties of Poisson Distribution

What is a Poisson distribution?

  • A Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution
  • A discrete random variable X follows a Poisson distribution if it counts the number of occurrences in a fixed time period given the following conditions:
    • Occurrences are independent
    • Occurrences occur at a uniform average rate for the time period (m)
  • If X follows a Poisson distribution then it is denoted X blank tilde Po invisible function application open parentheses m close parentheses
    • m is the average rate of occurrences for the time period
  • The formula for the probability of r occurrences is given by:
    •  straight P invisible function application open parentheses X equals r close parentheses equals fraction numerator straight e to the power of negative m end exponent m to the power of r over denominator r factorial end fraction for r = 0,1,2,...
      • e is Euler’s constant 2.718...
      • r factorial equals r cross times open parentheses r minus 1 close parentheses cross times horizontal ellipsis cross times 2 cross times 1 and 0 factorial equals 1
      • There is no upper bound for the number of occurrences
    • You will be expected to use the distribution function on your GDC to calculate probabilities with the Poisson distribution

What are the important properties of a Poisson distribution?

  • The expected number (mean) of occurrences is m
    • You are given this in the formula booklet
  • The variance of the number of occurrences is m
    • You are given this in the formula booklet
    • Square root to get the standard deviation
  • The mean and variance for a Poisson distribution are equal
  • The distribution can be represented visually using a vertical line graph
    • The graphs have tails to the right for all values of m
    • As m gets larger the graph gets more symmetrical
  • If X tilde Po invisible function application open parentheses m close parentheses and Y tilde Po invisible function application open parentheses lambda close parentheses are independent then X plus Y tilde Po invisible function application open parentheses m plus lambda close parentheses
    • This extends to n independent Poisson distributions X subscript i blank tilde Po invisible function application open parentheses m subscript i close parentheses
      • X subscript 1 plus X subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus X subscript n blank tilde Po invisible function application open parentheses m subscript 1 plus m subscript 2 plus blank horizontal ellipsis plus m subscript n close parentheses

2-1-1-poisson-distribution-diagram-1

Modelling with Poisson Distribution

How do I set up a Poisson model?

  • Identify what an occurrence is in the scenario
    • For example: a car passing a camera, a machine producing a faulty item
  • Use proportion to find the mean number of occurrences for the given time period
    • For example: 10 cars in 5 minutes would be 120 cars in an hour if the Poisson model works for both time periods
  • Make sure you clearly state what your random variable is
    • For example: let X be the number of cars passing a camera in 10 minutes

What can be modelled using a Poisson distribution?

  • Anything that satisfies the two conditions
  • For example, Let C be the number of calls that a helpline receives within a 15-minute period:  C tilde Po left parenthesis m right parenthesis
    • An occurrence is the helpline receiving a call and can be considered independent
    • The helpline receives calls at an average rate of m calls during a 15-minute period
  • Sometimes a measure of space will be used instead of a time period
    • For example, the number of daisies that exist on a square metre of grass
  • If the mean and variance of a discrete variable are equal then it might be possible to use a Poisson model

Exam Tip

  • An exam question might involve different types of distributions so make it clear which distribution is being used for each variable

Worked Example

Jack uses Po left parenthesis 6.25 right parenthesis  to model the number of emails he receives during his hour lunch break.

a)
Write down two assumptions that Jack has made.

4-10-1-ib-ai-hl-poisson-model-a-we-solution

b)
Calculate the standard deviation for the number of emails that Jack receives during his hour lunch breaks.

4-10-1-ib-ai-hl-poisson-model-b-we-solution



  • 1. Number & Algebra
    • 1.1 Number Toolkit
      • 1.1.1 Standard Form
        • 1.1.2 Approximation & Estimation
          • 1.1.3 GDC: Solving Equations
          • 1.2 Exponentials & Logs
            • 1.2.1 Exponents
              • 1.2.2 Logarithms
              • 1.3 Sequences & Series
                • 1.3.1 Language of Sequences & Series
                  • 1.3.2 Arithmetic Sequences & Series
                    • 1.3.3 Geometric Sequences & Series
                      • 1.3.4 Applications of Sequences & Series
                      • 1.4 Financial Applications
                        • 1.4.1 Compound Interest & Depreciation
                          • 1.4.2 Amortisation & Annuities
                          • 1.5 Complex Numbers
                            • 1.5.1 Intro to Complex Numbers
                              • 1.5.2 Modulus & Argument
                                • 1.5.3 Introduction to Argand Diagrams
                                • 1.6 Further Complex Numbers
                                  • 1.6.1 Geometry of Complex Numbers
                                    • 1.6.2 Forms of Complex Numbers
                                      • 1.6.3 Applications of Complex Numbers
                                      • 1.7 Matrices
                                        • 1.7.1 Introduction to Matrices
                                          • 1.7.2 Operations with Matrices
                                            • 1.7.3 Determinants & Inverses
                                              • 1.7.4 Solving Systems of Linear Equations with Matrices
                                              • 1.8 Eigenvalues & Eigenvectors
                                                • 1.8.1 Eigenvalues & Eigenvectors
                                                  • 1.8.2 Applications of Matrices
                                                • 2. Functions
                                                  • 2.1 Linear Functions & Graphs
                                                    • 2.1.1 Equations of a Straight Line
                                                    • 2.2 Further Functions & Graphs
                                                      • 2.2.1 Functions
                                                        • 2.2.2 Graphing Functions
                                                          • 2.2.3 Properties of Graphs
                                                          • 2.3 Modelling with Functions
                                                            • 2.3.1 Linear Models
                                                              • 2.3.2 Quadratic & Cubic Models
                                                                • 2.3.3 Exponential Models
                                                                  • 2.3.4 Direct & Inverse Variation
                                                                    • 2.3.5 Sinusoidal Models
                                                                      • 2.3.6 Strategy for Modelling Functions
                                                                      • 2.4 Functions Toolkit
                                                                        • 2.4.1 Composite & Inverse Functions
                                                                        • 2.5 Transformations of Graphs
                                                                          • 2.5.1 Translations of Graphs
                                                                            • 2.5.2 Reflections of Graphs
                                                                              • 2.5.3 Stretches of Graphs
                                                                                • 2.5.4 Composite Transformations of Graphs
                                                                                • 2.6 Further Modelling with Functions
                                                                                  • 2.6.1 Properties of Further Graphs
                                                                                    • 2.6.2 Natural Logarithmic Models
                                                                                      • 2.6.3 Logistic Models
                                                                                        • 2.6.4 Piecewise Models
                                                                                      • 3. Geometry & Trigonometry
                                                                                        • 3.1 Geometry Toolkit
                                                                                          • 3.1.1 Coordinate Geometry
                                                                                            • 3.1.2 Radian Measure
                                                                                              • 3.1.3 Arcs & Sectors
                                                                                              • 3.2 Geometry of 3D Shapes
                                                                                                • 3.2.1 3D Coordinate Geometry
                                                                                                  • 3.2.2 Volume & Surface Area
                                                                                                  • 3.3 Trigonometry
                                                                                                    • 3.3.1 Pythagoras & Right-Angled Triganometry
                                                                                                      • 3.3.2 Non Right-Angled Trigonometry
                                                                                                        • 3.3.3 Applications of Trigonometry & Pythagoras
                                                                                                        • 3.4 Further Trigonometry
                                                                                                          • 3.4.1 The Unit Circle
                                                                                                            • 3.4.2 Simple Identities
                                                                                                              • 3.4.3 Solving Trigonometric Equations
                                                                                                              • 3.5 Voronoi Diagrams
                                                                                                                • 3.5.1 Voronoi Diagrams
                                                                                                                  • 3.5.2 Toxic Waste Dump Problem
                                                                                                                  • 3.6 Matrix Transformations
                                                                                                                    • 3.6.1 Matrix Transformations
                                                                                                                      • 3.6.2 Determinant of a Transformation Matrix
                                                                                                                      • 3.7 Vector Properties
                                                                                                                        • 3.7.1 Introduction to Vectors
                                                                                                                          • 3.7.2 Position & Displacement Vectors
                                                                                                                            • 3.7.3 Magnitude of a Vector
                                                                                                                              • 3.7.4 The Scalar Product
                                                                                                                                • 3.7.5 The Vector Product
                                                                                                                                  • 3.7.6 Components of Vectors
                                                                                                                                    • 3.7.7 Geometric Proof with Vectors
                                                                                                                                    • 3.8 Vector Equations of Lines
                                                                                                                                      • 3.8.1 Vector Equations of Lines
                                                                                                                                        • 3.8.2 Shortest Distances with Lines
                                                                                                                                        • 3.9 Modelling with Vectors
                                                                                                                                          • 3.9.1 Kinematics with Vectors
                                                                                                                                            • 3.9.2 Constant & Variable Velocity
                                                                                                                                            • 3.10 Graph Theory
                                                                                                                                              • 3.10.1 Introduction to Graph Theory
                                                                                                                                                • 3.10.2 Walks & Adjacency Matrices
                                                                                                                                                  • 3.10.3 Minimum Spanning Trees
                                                                                                                                                    • 3.10.4 Chinese Postman Problem
                                                                                                                                                      • 3.10.5 Travelling Salesman Problem
                                                                                                                                                        • 3.10.6 Bounds for Travelling Salesman Problem
                                                                                                                                                      • 4. Statistics & Probability
                                                                                                                                                        • 4.1 Statistics Toolkit
                                                                                                                                                          • 4.1.1 Sampling
                                                                                                                                                            • 4.1.2 Data Collection
                                                                                                                                                              • 4.1.3 Statistical Measures
                                                                                                                                                                • 4.1.4 Frequency Tables
                                                                                                                                                                  • 4.1.5 Linear Transformations of Data
                                                                                                                                                                    • 4.1.6 Outliers
                                                                                                                                                                      • 4.1.7 Univariate Data
                                                                                                                                                                        • 4.1.8 Interpreting Data
                                                                                                                                                                        • 4.2 Correlation & Regression
                                                                                                                                                                          • 4.2.1 Bivariate Data
                                                                                                                                                                            • 4.2.2 Correlation Coefficients
                                                                                                                                                                              • 4.2.3 Linear Regression
                                                                                                                                                                              • 4.3 Further Correlation & Regression
                                                                                                                                                                                • 4.3.1 Non-linear Regression
                                                                                                                                                                                  • 4.3.2 Logarithmic Scales
                                                                                                                                                                                    • 4.3.3 Linearising using Logarithms
                                                                                                                                                                                    • 4.4 Probability
                                                                                                                                                                                      • 4.4.1 Probability & Types of Events
                                                                                                                                                                                        • 4.4.2 Conditional Probability
                                                                                                                                                                                          • 4.4.3 Sample Space Diagrams
                                                                                                                                                                                          • 4.5 Probability Distributions
                                                                                                                                                                                            • 4.5.1 Discrete Probability Distributions
                                                                                                                                                                                              • 4.5.2 Expected Values
                                                                                                                                                                                              • 4.6 Random Variables
                                                                                                                                                                                                • 4.6.1 Linear Combinations of Random Variables
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 4.6.2 Unbiased Estimates
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 4.7 Binomial Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • 4.7.1 The Binomial Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 4.7.2 Calculating Binomial Probabilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 4.8 Normal Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 4.8.1 The Normal Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 4.8.2 Calculations with Normal Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 4.9 Further Normal Distribution (inc Central Limit Theorem)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • 4.9.1 Sample Mean Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 4.9.2 Confidence Interval for the Mean
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 4.10 Poisson Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 4.10.1 Poisson Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 4.10.2 Calculating Poisson Probabilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 4.11 Hypothesis Testing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • 4.11.1 Hypothesis Testing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 4.11.2 Chi-squared Test for Independence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 4.11.3 Goodness of Fit Test
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 4.12 Further Hypothesis Testing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 4.12.1 Hypothesis Testing for Mean (One Sample)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • 4.12.2 Hypothesis Testing for Mean (Two Sample)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 4.12.3 Binomial Hypothesis Testing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 4.12.4 Poisson Hypothesis Testing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 4.12.5 Hypothesis Testing for Correlation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • 4.12.6 Type I & Type II Errors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • 4.13 Transition Matrices & Markov Chains
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 4.13.1 Markov Chains
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 4.13.2 Transition Matrices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 5. Calculus
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 5.1 Differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 5.1.1 Introduction to Differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • 5.1.2 Applications of Differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 5.1.3 Modelling with Differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 5.2 Further Differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 5.2.1 Differentiating Special Functions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 5.2.2 Techniques of Differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • 5.2.3 Related Rates of Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 5.2.4 Second Order Derivatives
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 5.2.5 Further Applications of Differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 5.2.6 Concavity & Points of Inflection
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 5.3 Integration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • 5.3.1 Trapezoid Rule: Numerical Integration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 5.3.2 Introduction to Integration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 5.3.3 Applications of Integration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 5.4 Further Integration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 5.4.1 Integrating Special Functions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • 5.4.2 Techniques of Integration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 5.4.3 Further Applications of Integration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 5.4.4 Volumes of Revolution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 5.5 Kinematics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 5.5.1 Kinematics Toolkit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • 5.5.2 Calculus for Kinematics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • 5.6 Differential Equations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 5.6.1 Modelling with Differential Equations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 5.6.2 Separation of Variables
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 5.6.3 Slope Fields
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • 5.6.4 Approximate Solutions to Differential Equations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • 5.7 Further Differential Equations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 5.7.1 Coupled Differential Equations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 5.7.2 Second Order Differential Equations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Daniel Finlay

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Author: Daniel

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dan graduated from the University of Oxford with a First class degree in mathematics. As well as teaching maths for over 8 years, Dan has marked a range of exams for Edexcel, tutored students and taught A Level Accounting. Dan has a keen interest in statistics and probability and their real-life applications.


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